Trump Turds (An Economy of Errors)
June 9, 2026
by William P. Meyers

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How much is that plastic tulip in the window?

So far, in the Trump Economy, most people are just irritated, not really angry. Worried, but not really frantic. Perhaps some have heard about the National Debt, or the Termite Economy, but the main effects of Trump economic policies so far are just higher prices in grocery stores and at gas pumps. People are worried about themselves, perhaps about being replaces by an AI agent.

To be fair, the coming slump, perhaps even collapse, of the American economy is not entirely Trump's fault. Still, as the ultimate decision maker of our era, he will bear much blame. His collaborators will be mere footnotes in history.

Donald Trump's poor decision making is based on his poor grasp of reality. That built up over his life, but I will try to encapsulate it with one story from his biography. Then I will lay out what his economic turds are and what future results they are likely to create.

Donald was born rich in 1946. His father Fred was a very successful real estate developer who had started building individual small houses, but by the time Donald was born had built huge apartment complexes. Donald worked for his dad's real estate company and became its President in 1971. Donald was eager to use the cash flow from the giant apartment complexes (mostly in Brooklyn) to make a big name for himself with even loftier developments in Manhattan. His appetite (or ego) was bigger than his abilities, but Fred was still around to smooth things out with local (corrupt, Democratic Party) politicians.

What epitomized Donald's business sense (or lack thereof) was his foray into casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey. This began around 1980. Everybody knows "The house always wins," but not if the house (casino) is run by an idiot. By 1984 he opened his first casino, Harrah's at Trump Plaza. In 1985 he bought a hotel and renamed it Trump's Castle, converting it to a casino. He named a third casino, bought in 1988, the Trump Taj Mahal, which cost $1.1 billion and was financed with $675 million in junk (high-interest rate) bonds. Trump paid Holiday Corporation $70 million in 1986 to take Harrah's At Trump Plaza off his hands. It and Trump Castle filed for bankruptcy in 1991. The Taj Mahal went bankrupt in 2009. What an idiot. [for details see Lucky Loser by Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig]

Donald Trump never takes personal responsibility when something goes wrong, even when that is a direct result of his actions. He likes to take credit when things go right, even if that has nothing to do with his actions. For instance, he took credit for the good jobs report last week. Now we have set the stage. Let's look at the economy, his role in undermining it, and what is likely to happen in the next two to three years.

The biggest single issue is the national debt, with the current and future national deficits. It is not an entirely new problem. In the past, typically, the federal government borrowed large sums of money to finance wars. After a war (like the Civil War or World War I) was over, tax rates that were raised during the war were kept high for several years during the peace so that the debt could be paid down. Then, starting with the Depression (1929) and New Deal, it became the received economic wisdom that the federal government could spend a lot of money, and run up the national debt, during times of economic crisis. This was done during the Depression, which was followed by World War II. Fortunately the prosperity of the 1950s allowed the debt to be paid back down (partly by very high income tax rates on the rich).

The last time this old methodology was used, reducing the debt, was during the Bill Clinton administration, from 1993 until 2000. Keep in mind that Congress has most of the power over the national budget, it is just easier to refer to U.S. history by presidents, who often are in the same party as the congressional majority. Since the Great Depression the Democratic Party (and many economists) had developed the theory that national debt, within reason, can be a good thing. It is an investment in the future. Spending $100 million on a road might result in $200 million in economic benefits over time. The Republican Party usually wanted to keep the annual deficit and national debt low, mainly because they wanted to keep income tax rates low. The change was mainly in the Republican Party. Their new theory was that by reducing taxes on the rich, while the national debt would be increased short-run, the less-taxed wealthy Americans would invest in more economic activity, resulting in higher taxes long-term, so mitigating the increase in the national debt. So now both parties believed in running deficits because it would all work out in the long run.

The long run is here, in 2026, in the second Trump administration, and it has not all worked out. As I write the national debt estimate is over $39 trillion. The official budget deficit for this year is $1.65 trillion. Interest on the debt this year is $1 trillion. Total federal spending is $7.14 trillion. [See U.S. Debt Clock for updates and details.]

Given how much federal money had to be spent to keep the U.S. economy alive during the Covid epidemic (2020 to about 2023), federal spending should have been decreased substantially as the economy started reviving in 2024. Some covid-era funding was decreased, but the arrival of Donald Trump in January 2026 sent us back to both tax cuts and big spending. Cuts in spending for poorer people, like Medicaid, were more than offset by increases in defense spending and immigration. Rich people, and to a lesser extent pension funds and retirement accounts, own most of the debt and receive the interest on the debt. Tax cuts, including continuing a big tax cut for the rich from his first administration, went mainly to the wealthy, with tidbits tossed to some sections of the working class.

Trump does not like inflicting economic pain on the rich and the middle to upper-middle classes, but he has no sympathy for working people. He is calling for even more spending in the future, mainly on the War Department. So expect big national deficits and a ballooning national debt as long as Trump is alive and holds the Presidency. In addition his Iran war is driving up costs, notably gas and diesel costs, which limits ordinary Americans on how much they have to spend on essentials or small luxuries.

The economy looks like it is doing okay, today, because of federal spending, but it is a house of termites. A Termite Economy. It looks solid, but the structure is like a sponge, it could be blown over or tipped over by any of several causes. A stock market crash, a series of corporate bankruptcies, collapsing AI investment dreams, a drop in consumer spending, perhaps a black swan: there are plenty of tipping points that could lead to collapse.

The main problem, overall, is borrowed money that might not ever be paid back. Corporations that expanded using borrowed money but find their wares are undercut by AI. Consumers who borrowed for cars and houses, even for clothes and groceries, who lose their jobs. The real estate sector, including both business buildings and the home market, is built on debt. Crypto is 100% con artistry.

It is fair to call it a confidence game. Are you confident Tesla will sell more cars? That the half-empty office towers downtown will eventually refill with new businesses? That data center construction will lead to any benefit once the construction workers go home? That global warming won't destroy enough American cropland to send food prices sky-high, or even cause a famine?

The economy may not collapse, but that is what people said in 2006, before the dot com bubble burst, and in early 1929.

President Donald Trump famously claimed to have bone spurs, which prevented him from serving in the U.S. miliary during the Vietnam War. If he had said "I think the war is wrong," I would have some sympathy. But he was a rich kid who did not want his easy life interrupted. Every time he failed his father's fortune bailed him out. Until play acting a smart businessman on TV turned out to make more money than actually engaging in business. Trump has been able to con people, at first investors and later voters, because he became supremely confident.

I might sum up with a lyric from a Vietnam War era song: Waist Deep in the Big Muddy.
Waist deep, neck deep
Soon even a tall man will be over his head,
We're waist deep in the Big Muddy
The big fool says to push on.