War, Peace, Apocalypse
March 3, 2026
by William P. Meyers

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Secondary effects of a complex situation

So much, so fast, where to start?

American farmers. What? Really? How?

It is pretty simple. One of the major costs of farming in the U.S. is fertilizer. There are several forms of fertilizer necessary to successfully produce corn, wheat, and other crops, but the largest single input is nitrogen fertilizer. That comes in several forms, but in our industrial world they all start as nitrogen from the atmosphere. In America they are typically applied as pure ammonia, as urea, or as ammonium nitrate. In any case the cost of production is largely based on energy costs, so on a global scale some of the big producers include Ukraine, Russia, and Iran. A few companies produce fertilizer in the United States, able to compete on price partly by not having to pay transportation costs to move a bulk item half way around the world.

Netanyahu does not care about that. Donald Trump did not think about that. His idiot advisors did not think about that. But last I looked the global price quote for urea (a good proxy for all nitrogen fertilizer) was up over 14% today. That is not just because Iran's supply is cut off. It is also because of the soaring price of natural gas, the other main feedstock (besides air) in the process.

Some farmers buy their spring fertilizer in advance, but many wait until they are getting near planting, or even apply it after seeds are in the ground. Seeing the price of fertilizer, and not knowing how much their corn harvest will be worth in the fall, many will cut back on planting. If that happens, and anything else (a drought or heat dome, or worst of all, both) hits the crops, the price of corn will be going up, up, up.

Will farmers hate Trump, or will they continue to feel it is their patriotic duty to love him? I don't know. Check back when the invoices for fertilizer start coming in.

This new war is taking place in the midst of the slow motion apocalypse. It is conceivable that it could set off World War III, much like the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, a prince of Austria, set off World War I. More likely the war will fizzle out over time. But why take the risk? To distract from the Epstein files? No, I think it is just that President Trump likes to play mob boss. Knock off another mob boss, pick up the pieces of his organized crime empire.

Some people say the death of Ali Khamenei is a silver lining. But that is only if a different regime emerges. Not a resurrection of the prior dictator, the Shah. More likely an even more radical younger cleric or military chieftain will emerge.

The only possible silver lining I can see is a possible, temporary, decrease in emissions from fossil fuels. The price of gasoline is going up, up, up, but we don't know for how long. Some people drive less when gasoline gets expensive. Inflation goes up when gas gets expensive. So the Federal Reserve is not likely to lower interest rates any time soon. Maybe the U.S. economy will go into a tailspin. That would be great for earth's ecology, but pretty hard on the typical American worker.

Trump's long history of stupidity and engendering chaos is documented in many places. A good summary is Lucky Loser by Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig. Trump himself is the main wild card. If Iranian agents succeed in killing him, outcome will be different than if they fail. Or if he dies or becomes incapacitated for any other reason. But he also has a Vice President and Cabinet in place if he dies, the Gang of Incompetence. Not that they have no competency. They know how to fire people, how to lie, how to take bribes on a scale unprecedented in U.S. history. But doing what is needed for a healthy economy or a healthy world, that is way beyond their skill levels.

And if the stock market crashes (it might not), what about all those people who were depending on it for retirement?

We could be at a Herbert Hoover moment. The funny thing about President Hoover is that he actually was a competent businessman. He did nothing wrong himself, as far as I can tell. He just happened to be President when things fell apart.

Things don't usually fall apart on a national or global scale. It is hard to predict when they will. So like the Boy Scouts used to say, be prepared.

And my best wishes to all of you.

[Disclosure: in my retirement account I own stock in CRV Partners (UAN), an American fertilizer company.]