Democrats Need More White Voters
February 15, 2025
by William P. Meyers

Site Search

Popular pages:

Trumpism can be defeated

Elections at the Presidential level in the United States can be quite complicated. There are many issues voters can choose from in deciding who gets their vote. Among them the personalities of the candidates, their view of the economy or world in general, and social issues. I believe that Kamala Harris lost the 2024 Presidential election because the Democratic Party has long failed to communicate effectively to white (European-descended) voters. The Democratic Party policies that help these voters have gotten lost in a swamp of happy talk that prioritizes appealing to ethnic minorities and some relatively small special interest groups. I will begin by looking at the ethnic makeup of Americans and comparing that to the way ethnic groups voted in 2024. Then I will look at the class structure of white citizens. I will explain why the Democrats lost the white vote, and how they can regain it without sacrificing liberal principles.

The latest figures available from the U.S. Census are from 2020. In that year a majority of Americans identified as white alone, more precisely 57.8%. Clearly if all whites vote as a block they can win any national election.

The next largest block was labeled Hispanic or Latino, at 18.7%. This is a misleading grouping. It is the only grouping by language rather than by the old concept of race. As illustrated in Latinoland by Marie Arana, this grouping can be black, white, Asian (especially native American) mixtures of any proportions. In many cases they have long switched from Spanish to English speaking.

African Americans make up 12.1% of the national population. Asians 5.9%. And mixed race 4.1%.

There are other ways to break down the U.S. population, for instance by education level, wealth or income level, generations, and religious or philosophical beliefs.

How did people vote in 2024? In theory we have secret ballots, but the statistics people are pretty good at figuring out which subgroups voted for which candidates.

The first thing to note about 2024 election results is that although the electoral vote was lopsided, with Donald Trump winning 312 electors and Kamala Harris only 2026, the popular vote count margin was only 1.5%. Donald Trump received 77,302,580 votes, or 49.8%. Kamala Harris received 75,017,613, or 48.3%. Third-party and write-in candidates received 1.9% of the vote. Donald Trump's votes were generally more evenly spread out, whereas Ms. Harris's votes were concentrated in California and New York, which (like all large population states, including Texas and Florida) are underrepresented in the Electoral College.

There is a good table breaking down the vote by demographics at Wikipedia: 2024 Exit Poll. Starting with white voters overall, Trump won 57% to 42%. One might explain that simply by noting that Trump is white and Harris presents as black, though she is half Asian. However, in 2020 Joe Biden, a white man, did even worse among white voters, with just 41% of their vote. We will need to dig deeper to understand how to change the white vote, aside from simply running a white person as the Democratic Party candidate.

Note too that Harris won among non-white voters. She received 86% of the black vote, 51% of the Latino vote, and 55% of the Asian vote. Trump did win the Native American vote by 68%.

Religion was clearly a factor. Protestants were for Trump by 63%, Catholics by 59%. Jews, unaffiliated, and other religions preferred Harris. It is notable that 24% of all voters claimed no religion. It would be fair to guess that these voters are largely more educated and perhaps higher-income than the white Protestant voters who went 72% for Trump.

Age was an important factor. Voters under 39 years old generally favored Harris. Voters 50 and over favored Trump. In the 40-49 category, it was a tie.

By education, college graduates favored Harris by 53%. Those of lesser education favored Trump. Notably those with high school or less education favored trump 62% to 36%. That is strange given the Republican Parties classic anti-working class positions on the economy, and the Democrats' long, post-New Deal position of supporting the working class. But education does not entirely coincide with income level. Harris won among those with incomes under $30,000 by 50% to 46%. Trump edged her our in the $30,000 to $99,000 categories, 52% to 46%. Over $100,000 Harris swang back to the lead, but just by 51% to 46%.

I know, I know, a lot of numbers, and the relationships are unclear or complex. However a core feature is obvious: given the percentage of voters who are (or identify) as white, Harris needed to win more of them. In general the Democratic Party needs to win more of them.

The following analysis in anecdotal, I don't have statistics to support it. It is largely an analysis of how Democrats speak to people, which lacks detailed data because we don't record every speech politicians make, much less the talk of grassroots activists. What I have heard reflects my life experiences, just as how a white working class Trump voter's experience with Democratic rhetoric reflects their life experiences. I was born into a conservative white working class family in the South, which in the 1950s meant my parents supported the New Deal but were segregationists. I turned left and volunteered in the McGovern campaign the same year (1972) my parents (and many southern Democrats) turned right and started voting for Nixon and other Republicans. With a Political Science degree in hand I turned left-of-Democrat. I only became a Democrat again in 2016. I know the rhetoric, left, right and center. I have heard, over and over again, Democrats needlessly alienate white people, particularly male white people.

Boiled down, the typical speak is: we will do all we can for blacks, latinos, American Indians, women, gay people, the disabled, and others on welfare.

So if you work, and you are a white male, do you hear yourself in that picture? Is the Democratic Party fighting for you? On first analysis: No. If you believe the Republicans, you are actually a person the Democrats consider an enemy. You block the entitlement of blacks, latinos, American Indians, women, gay people, the disabled, and welfare recipients.

You look at your paycheck and see deductions for Medicare and Social Security, plus income tax. That those will provide you, in a decade or four, with Medicare and Social Security checks is easy to forget. Meanwhile, you have to work to stay alive, while people who do not work get government housing, free food, and free medical care (Medicaid).

So the solution, the political solution, is obvious.

Add two words to the Democratic list. Two words to show you want justice for all. Two words to show you care about everyone. Two words to remind us that the New Deal and Great Society programs rescued all America from the Depression and poverty.

White.

Male.

I mean really, would it be that hard?

Say it:

I demand justice for African Americans, Latinos, Asians, gays, the disabled, women, whites, and males.

I demand justice for you whether you had to drop out of high school, or completed junior college, or worked your way through college, or never worked until you got your PhD.

I demand fair treatment of all employees, white, black, and brown, male and female, gay and straight.

I demand a national minimum wage so that every one, black or white, male or female, who works can afford a decent place to live, food, and medical care.

Democratic speakers, wake up. Listen to what you say, and reflect on how it sounds to ordinary people.