Ice Melt
May 27, 2023
by William P. Meyers

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Science Paper Estimates Global Warming

"Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG level is 10°C for our central estimate ECS = 1.2°C ± 0.2°C per W/m2, including the amplifications from disappearing ice sheets and non-CO2 GHGs (Sec. 4.4). Aerosols reduce equilibrium warming to about 8°C. Equilibrium sea level change is + 60 m (about 200 feet)."
—Global Warming in the Pipeline by James Hansen et al.

Global Warming in the Pipeline includes 62 pages that to most people will seem overly filled with technical jargon. The conclusion is that a good guess at the amount of global warming in the pipeline is about 8 degrees Celsius or 14 degrees Fahrenheit. That would, longer term, result in sea level rising 60 meters or 200 feet.

You can dismiss Ice Melt, as it is called, as just the opinion of a minority of scientists. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) did. I will admit that this is not my area of expertise. But I have a long history of being paid to read science papers and interpret them for various purposes, and this one seems at least plausible. Especially when you consider that we know the IPCC report averaged in some science that lowballed global warming. Everyone agrees the earth's systems are complex. Projecting exactly what will happen in the future is at best a probability-based business. We do not even know what humans will do, much less exactly how the earth will respond. But that has been true of making predictions throughout human history. We need to make educated guesses in order to prepare for tomorrow.

To prepare for tomorrow it is clear the human race should:

1. Limit children to one per family.

2. Immediately shut down most air travel.

3. Immediately shut down individual auto use in favor of mass transit.

4. Immediately lower all other sources of greenhouse gas, including strict rules on using air conditioning in summer and heating in winter.

What are the chances those things will happen? Zero, to round down slightly. Even the environmental activists I know are very selective about inconveniencing themselves. A huge percentage of my Democratic Party, and even my Green Party, friends have flow overseas in the past year. As an individual you can do nothing worse than flying, in particular taking long flights.

So be prepared. The fact that all this temperature rise and sea level rise will happen slowly does not mean it will happen evenly. There may be regional or even global regressions or pauses, but there will also be big jumps forward.

The only thing that I see that will stop the madness is crop failures. Nothing stops humans like having no food to eat. So far crop failures have been intermittent. Crops are moved around the world, so for instance the near total crop failure in Argentina this year was compensated by good crops in other regions. But if you know what a Poisson Distribution is, you know that as temperatures rise and time goes on, there will be clusters of events, including global crop failures.

Good luck to all of you as the Slow Motion Apocalypse rolls on.